Big Motors: Four major factors cause A shares to rise more than expected and focus on the impact of resumption on earnings
Come to Sina Finance University and listen to Guan Qingyou talk about economic and financial indicators and countermeasures during the “epidemic” period. Original title: Damo: Four factors to A-shares rose faster than expected. Focusing on the impact of rework rate on profitability. In the future, we will continue to pay attention to the rework rate.It serves as an indicator of the impact of new coronary pneumonia on China’s GDP and corporate profits.
After the market fell sharply on the first day after the market opened on February 3, A-shares continued to rise, and the Shanghai Composite Index rose 2 on the 17th.
28%, the GEM index rose sharply3.
On February 18, the Shanghai Composite Index closed up slightly.
In the face of the epidemic, the market has temporarily transitioned temporarily, focusing on the long-term pattern.
On February 17, the latest research released by Morgan Stanley stated that there are four major factors driving the continuous rise of A shares, including easing policies, new refinancing regulations, fewer confirmed cases of new crown pneumonia, and sudden shocks overseas.
Morgan Stanley’s A-share sentiment index also shows that the latest reading is maintained in the middle of the 40 range. Although the epidemic has caused production to shift, market sentiment continues to rise.
Approximately, when the A-share market rebounded strongly in the first quarter of last year, the reading was about 50, and it fell below 30 in the second half of the year.
The agency also said that it will need to continue to pay attention to the return to work rate in the future as an indicator of the impact of new coronary pneumonia on China’s GDP and corporate profits. In the near future, the agency will change the 2020 profit expectations of MSCI China and Shanghai and Shenzhen 300Reduced by 3% and 4% to 7% and 6%, respectively.
Four factors boost China’s stock market. First, gradually lower the medium-term borrowing facility (MLF) interest rate by 10 basis points (BP) to 3.
15%, Morgan Stanley believes that this also paves the way for subsequent LPR (loan quote interest rate) reductions, and at the same time the market still has expectations for directional and comprehensive RRR cuts.
About the evening of February 14th, the Securities Regulatory Commission formally issued refinancing rules.
The biggest highlight is that this revision adjusts the pricing and locking mechanism of non-public offering of shares, which is also considered to be the core of the current refinancing market.
The revised rules have relaxed the discount rate for refinancing issuance prices, and at the same time shortened the lock-up period of shares, and the relevant restrictions of the reduction rules do not apply.
At the same time, after the formal revision, if a listed company applies for a non-public offering of shares, the number of shares to be issued shall not be increased from 30% to 30% of the total share capital before the issuance in principle.
Morgan Stanley believes that this will boost the A-share market flow, especially in the small and medium-cap markets.
In addition, the number of confirmed cases of neocoronary pneumonia began to decline.
Morgan Stanley also said that the return rate should be used as one of the indicators to measure the impact of the new crown pneumonia on China’s GDP and corporate profits.
Another surprising idea is not due to the world ‘s largest worm raging once in 25 years, which caused the United Nations to issue a profound forecast. On February 17, a wave of agricultural stocks rose in the A-share market.
However, Morgan Stanley said that the risk to be alert is that once the situation gradually normalizes, policy effects may be replaced.
For the time being, communication services are still the most oversupplied sector. Online companies continue to be optimistic about connected activities, such as online games and e-commerce; and over-configuration infrastructure related sectors (materials, industry).
Mainstream institutions concerned about the resumption of work and profitability of mainstream companies generally believe that the recent market activity reflects more the goodwill of policies, including the easing of monetary policy and the relaxation of regulatory policies, and the stock market has not yet responded to the downward pressure on the economy and the decline in corporate profits.Therefore, the stock market trend should not be pessimistic after the sharp fall on the first day after the holiday, but it should not be blindly optimistic after continuous forcing short-term growth, and the continuous long-term trend still needs to reflect fundamental changes.
At present, the decline in the market’s risk-free rate of return may not yet fully hedge the decline in corporate profits.
Affected by the new crown pneumonia temporarily, on February 14, Morgan Stanley lowered the 2020 target prices of MSCI China and Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 to 84 and 3960, respectively, and reduced the 2020 profit expectations of MSCI China and Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 in the scenario, respectively.Down 3% and 4% to 7% and 6%.
The reason for the adjustment is that, assuming the epidemic peaks in February or March, the impact on GDP growth in the first quarter is expected to be zero.
At 5%, the recovery of corporate and consumer sentiment has improved, and the agency’s Z-score model of Chinese consumer activity also reflects this.
The Air Force’s Chinese consumer activity has been improving, and it is worth observing the follow-up situation.
In response to resumption of work and profits, Eastspring recently traced the risk exposure of the electronic equipment manufacturing end in the technology industry.
The total number of employees in such companies in listed companies in China is tens of thousands, or even 100,000, and small and medium-sized enterprises with a few people can be found everywhere.
How to prevent new coronavirus pneumonia in such a dense and populous environment, and promptly identify and isolate cases when they occur, while ensuring normal production is challenging.
In addition, Morgan Stanley also mentioned that the fundamentals of the first quarter will be damaged due to the traditional Chinese New Year factors. The revenue of alcohol, beverage, food and brand clothing companies generally exceeds 25%.?30%, corresponding profits accounted for 30%?
40%, attractions, education and training enterprises accounted for 20% of revenue?
25%, profit accounted for about 25%; hotel and catering companies accounted for 20% of revenue, but the relative proportion of profits was about 15%.
However, leading companies have the ability to penetrate faster and expand in times of industry crisis. The growth rate of these companies will remain the same or even higher in 2021. Some tax exemptions, hotels, offline training leaders, travel platform services and high-quality scarce attractions.
Therefore, mainstream institutions believe that even if the index subsequently adjusts moderately, it will be more conducive to the healthier operation of the stock market, and moderate 都市夜网 adjustments will allow hesitant off-market funds to enter the market and will be more conducive to long-term market optimism.
In addition, Morgan Stanley pointed out that even though it is difficult for MSCI to continue to promote A-share substitution factors this year, foreign investment in A-shares is still in a very early stage, and overseas investors ‘holdings of A-shares have only reached 3% of the total market value.
5% (as of December 2019).
Since June 1st last year, the most ideal sectors for Beijing’s capital are consumption, capital goods, banking, and healthcare.
On February 13, MSCI released its February 2020 quarterly adjustment list on its official website, and the relevant changes will take effect after the close of February 28.
The elimination of Midea Group has long been expected, which is also associated with suffering from being “buyed”.
According to the relevant regulations of the Shanghai and Shenzhen Stock Exchanges, individual foreign investors hold the shares of a listed company through qualified investors, and the shareholding ratio must not exceed 10% of the total number of shares of the company; all foreign investors’ shareholding ratios in the A listed shares of the alternative listed companyThe sum does not exceed 30% of the total shares of the listed company.
According to Morgan Stanley’s calculations, the top ten stocks with the highest foreign shareholding currently are: Midea (27.
2%), China Test (27.
1%), Bank of Nanjing (18.
6%), Tiger Medical (18.
3%), Founder Securities (right protection) (17.
9%), Sofia (17.
9%), Bank of Ningbo (17.
3%), Gree (16.
9%), the boss appliances (16.
3%), Angel yeast (16.