Zhongzhi shares (600038): Harbin branch’s high-speed growth helicopter leader takes off again

Zhongzhi shares (600038): Harbin branch’s high-speed growth helicopter leader takes off again

Event: The company released its 2018 annual report, which achieved a total of 130 operating income in 2018.

66 ppm, a ten-year increase of 8.

44%, net profit attributable to mothers5.

10,000 yuan, an increase of 12 in ten years.


Basic income is 0.

8657 yuan / share, an increase of 12 over the same period last year.

06%, expected average net asset income increased by 6.


The Harbin branch grew rapidly, and the helicopter leader took off again.

In 2018, the company’s Harbin branch obtained operating income44.

9 trillion, of which foreign trade income was as high as 42.

20,000 yuan, with a total operating income of 34 in 2017.

36 billion 北京夜生活网 percent increased 31%; and Jingdezhen’s 2018 revenue was 84.

680,000 yuan, compared with 84 in 2017.

The 18 ppm ratio increased only slightly.

Harbin branch made total profit in 20181.

2.2 billion, compared with 0 in 2017.

73 billion dollars increased by 0.

49 ppm, an increase of 67 in ten years.

12%, and the Jingdezhen branch made a total profit of 4 in 2018.

80,000 yuan, compared with 4 in 2017.

47 billion dollars increased by only a small amount, an increase of 7.


We believe that the rapid growth of the Harbin Hai Branch’s revenue has benefited from the commissioning of new products. The new layout developed by the company is located in the gap of ten-ton helicopters, which will bring new growth points to the company after large-scale production.

The company’s gross profit margin is normally fluctuating and is expected to enter an upward channel in the future.

The company’s gross profit margin in 2018 was 13.

93%, compared with 15 in 2017.

34% fell slightly, but it was still in the normal floating range.

The company’s main business aviation products contributed most of the gross profit, and its gross profit margin was 13.


The company’s existing core products are in the leading position in technology in the country, and through the adjustment and development of its product structure, the company’s main product model upgrades have been gradually completed, but a more complete helicopter pedigree, which basically forms a “one machine with multiple types, seriesDevelopment “.

We expect that the stable installation of new products in 2019 will increase the company’s gross profit margin, and the company will be able to embark on advanced technology and perfect products in the future and maintain stable growth in the next three years.

Cost reductions and efficiency gains have initially achieved results, significantly increasing company profits.

The company’s financial expenses in 2018 were -1,294.

230,000 yuan, 68 compared with the same period last year.

750,000 yuan decreased by 1,362.

970,000 yuan, the initial reduction in financial expenses is the reduction of supplementary expenses; the company’s 2018 research and development expenses3.06 trillion, compared with the same period last year 4.

09 billion US dollars fell by 25.

14%, the initial reduction in R & D expenses is that some R & D projects have been completed and the R & D expenses have been extended.

In addition, the company’s selling expenses were 11,938.

120,000 yuan, 11,722 compared with the same period last year.

470,000 yuan increased by 215.

660,000 yuan, an annual increase of 1.

84%, management costs 8.

90,000 yuan, an increase of 21 over the same period last year.

68%, but the total period cost is 13.

30,000 yuan, an annual increase of 3.


The Sino-US helicopter difference has broken through, and the company will fully benefit from the development of military and civilian helicopters.

The difference between the current helicopter and the United States breaks through. According to “World Air Force 2018” statistics, the number of U.S. military helicopters is 5,427, and the number of domestic military helicopters is 884, which is only 1/6 of the United States.The second and third generations followed; the number of U.S. registered helicopters was 13,170, and China’s was 1054, which was only 8 of the United States.

00%; China has only 0 in the number of helicopters per million people.

76 aircraft, 1 for the United States.


In addition, most of the domestic civilian helicopters are produced by foreign manufacturers, and the domestic market share of domestic independent brands is less than 10%. The domestic substitution demand is urgent.

The company currently has a complete AC series civilian helicopter pedigree with sufficient capacity. We expect the company to expand the market share of civilian helicopters in the field of civilian helicopters in the future, fully benefit the military-civilian integration and usher in a new round of growth.

Profit forecast and investment advice: We predict that the company’s realised revenue for 2019-2021 will be 163.



91 ppm, an increase of 25 in ten years.

25% / 26.

32% / 26.

69%; net profit attributable to mother 6.



25 trillion, an increase of 25 in ten years.

01% / 26.

57% / 26.

89%; EPS corresponding to 19-21 years are 1.



74 yuan.

Maintain “Buy” rating.

Risk reminders: The new budget is not as good as expected; macroeconomic risks; raw material replacement and price fluctuation risks; product quality and production safety risks.

Yili (600887) Interim Review: Pressure on short-term performance and long-term layout under pressure

Yili (600887) Interim Review: Pressure on short-term performance and long-term layout under pressure

Matters: Yili’s 19-year interim report was released, and operating income was 450 in 1H19.

7 trillion, an increase of 12 in ten years.

8%; net profit attributable to mother 37.

81 trillion, an increase of 9 in ten years.

7%; budget benefit 0.

62 yuan.

It is estimated that the company achieved operating income of 219 in 2Q19.

400 million, an increase of 8 in ten years.

7%; net profit attributable to mother 15.

500,000 yuan, an increase of 11 in ten years.

8%; budget benefit 0.

25 yuan.

Investment highlights: 2Q19 revenue exceeded expectations and net profit was in line with expectations.

Net profit in the second quarter of 19 increased by ten in ten years.

8%, mainly from the ten-year increase in revenue8.

7%, and the sales expense ratio was downgraded for ten years.

9 points.

Revenue growth accelerated in the second quarter of 19, and core single product performance was good.成都桑拿网

The revenue growth rate in the second quarter of 19 was slightly lower than expected or mainly due to the disruption of low-temperature business (the share of Yili’s low-temperature milk market declined slightly in 1H19).

In terms of business, 1H2019’s liquid milk, cold drinks and milk powder businesses continued to grow, increasing by 13 respectively.

2%, 15.

4%, 13.


The main reasons for the increase in revenue are: (1) the development of a balanced strategy for categories, better performance of key products and new products.

The revenues of key products such as Jindian, Anmuxi and Jinlingguan increased by 30%, and the proportion of new products increased by 2.

6 points to 17.

4%; (2) Continued intensive cultivation of channels, and the effectiveness of channel subsidence was significant.

The penetration 深圳桑拿网 rate of normal temperature liquid milk market in June 19 increased by 2.

7pct to 83.

9%, third and fourth line penetration increased by 2.

3pct to 86.


Looking to the future, through channel intensive cultivation and sinking to increase the penetration rate, product items increase, and the product structure continues to be upgraded. It is expected that the leader Yili will gradually maintain double-digit growth, and its revenue is expected to reach 14%.

The increase in sales expense ratio improved, and the decline in gross profit margin restrained the increase in profit margin.

Quarterly gross margin was downgraded by 1 in 2Q19.

8 points to 37.

3%, the main reasons are: (1) the cost of raw milk, imported whey powder, skim milk powder increased; (2) off-season purchase gifts increased; (3) increased capital expenditure, increased pressure to solidify

In terms of business, the gross profit margin of liquid milk in 1H19 decreased to zero.1pct to 35.

9%; cold drink gross margin increased by 1 in ten years.

2 points to 47.

4%; milk powder gross margin downgraded by 1 in ten years.

6pct to 52%.

The sales expense ratio in the second quarter of 19 decreased year by year2.

9 points to 25.

2%, mainly because 2Q18 companies followed the Mengniu World Cup marketing to increase cost placement and base breakdown.

Although Yili’s 2Q19 promotional expenses increased, but the basic display costs decreased, so the overall cost rate is still within the planned range.

Looking forward to the past year, the cost of raw milk is still in the upward range, and the cost pressure may continue; the industry competition pattern has not changed, and the sales expense ratio may still be high; after the equity incentive plan is passed, the management expenses may also rise during the year, and profit pressure in the second halfIt is estimated that the estimated net profit growth rate is about 7%.

Market share continues to increase, Yili has steadily advanced its transformation and diversified strategy, which is suitable for long-term layout.

Yili’s leading position is solid and its market share continues to increase. The market share of Yili’s room temperature liquid milk and infant formula in 1H19 increased by 5 respectively.

8 pieces, 0 pieces

6 points.

The company is steadily advancing its platformization strategy, testing new areas such as coffee and light milk beverages on a diversified strategy; and accelerating the deployment of Southeast Asian markets in strategic development.

In addition, Yili launched equity incentives. The scope of the incentives is broad, involving executives, core technology and business personnel, and basically covers new and core businesses. The incentive period is up to 6 years, which is conducive to improving the stability and motivation of the team.It is conducive to attracting outstanding talents and better implementing the company’s long-term strategy.

In the long run, new businesses and new markets may provide new growth points, and the company’s core competitiveness continues to improve.

Profit forecast and investment advice: EPS is expected to be 1 in 19-21.

13, 1.


31 yuan, an increase of 7 a year.

3%, 2.

2%, 13.

5%, the PE corresponding to the latest closing price is 26, 25, 22 times.

Yili integrates its brand and channel advantages, continuously improves its market share, and further consolidates its leading position.

Considering that Yili’s diversified layout can be expected to become a major platform for healthy food, it is worthy of long-term layout, and it still gives a “recommended” rating.

Risk warning: the risk of rising raw material prices, food safety incidents.

Panwei Network (603039) 2018 Annual Report Comments: Revenue Continues to Grow Rapidly, Cloud Business Promotion Effective

Panwei Network (603039) 2018 Annual Report Comments: Revenue Continues to Grow Rapidly, Cloud Business Promotion Effective

Event: The company released its 2018 annual report and achieved revenue of 10.

40,000 yuan, an increase of 42 in ten years.

51%; realized net profit attributable to owners of the parent company is 1.

14 ‰, an increase of 31 per year.

64%, performance basically in line with expectations; net cash flow from operating activities of 200 million US dollars, an increase of 27 in ten years.

58%; advance receipts increased by 23.

21% to 5.

30,000 yuan, budget and financial indicators continue to grow steadily.

Revenue continued to grow at a high speed, and the proportion of service revenue further increased: the company’s overall revenue for 18 years increased by 38 in 10 years.

82%, continuing the rapid growth of democracy.

In terms of business segments, self-developed software products increased by 33% to 6.

USD 7.5 billion, of which ecological and electronic office products increased by 33% and 31% respectively; benefiting from the increase in the proportion of revenue contributed by old customers and the smooth development of cloud business, the company’s technical service revenue increased by 63% to 3.

US $ 4.4 billion, and its revenue share increased from 30% in 17 years to 34% in 18 years.

18-year overall gross profit margin was 95.

80%, with a rise of 0.

39 units, basically stable.

The 18-year company expense ratio, sales expense, management expense ratio, research and development expense ratio, and financial expense ratio were 90.

18%, 71.

59%, 8.

41%, 12.

50% and -2.

32%, ranking change in 2017 -2.

51, +0.

20, -0.

90, +0.

32 and -2.

13 units, of which the amortization cost of fair incentives is 2701 million. If the equity incentives are replaced, the net profit will be 1.

4.1 billion, an increase of 46% over the same period last year.

The cloud business promotion effect is significant, and the product is continuously iteratively upgraded: In order to accelerate the promotion of SaaS product eteams, the company launched the Kunpeng plan in March 18 and launched product experience meetings in Baicheng. The company’s WeChat added 100 billion yuan in 7 monthsFund cooperation joins promotion.

The promotion effect of cloud products is remarkable, and the revenue growth rate of this business is higher than the overall revenue growth rate.

At the same time, the company’s products have been continuously iteratively upgraded. In September 18, the company launched a new generation of “intelligent, platformized, and electronic throughout” OA products-e-cology9.

0; The small e intelligent voice assist system launched by the company replaced the 7 major engines and performed iterative upgrades, and also completed the layout and introduction of electronic contracting and other fields.

Investment suggestion: In view of the downturn in the macro economy and the intensified competition among companies in the industry sector, the company’s net profit attributable to listed companies for the years 19-20 will be lowered to 1, respectively.

46 and 1.

83 ppm (former predictor 1).


400 million), and forecast the company’s net profit attributable to the parent company for 21 years to be 2.

2.5 billion.We are optimistic that the company ‘s revenue growth as a leading OA company is faster than the industry growth rate. E-cology has benefited from the increase in the number of potential customers and the accelerated development of cloud services.

Risk reminder: Traditional OA growth is less than expected in the later period, industry growth is slower than expected, cloud OA promotion is lower than 苏州夜网论坛 expected, and the overall market growth rate is falling.

Makihara (002714) Annual Report 2018 Review: Cycle Turning Point Has Arrived

Makihara (002714) Annual Report 2018 Review: Cycle Turning Point Has Arrived

Affected 苏州夜网论坛 by rising epidemic prevention and construction costs, the impact of pig prices in advance to suppress pig prices, 19Q1 performance or short-term pressure.

However, the upward cycle of pig prices has started, and the production capacity in the northern region has been deepened, and highly elastic pig prices are expected.

As an industry leader in continuous expansion, the number of listings is expected to continue to increase.

The rise in both volume and price is expected to drive the company’s profits to continue to increase.

Raise EPS forecast for 2019-2020, raise target price to 81 yuan, and maintain “Buy” rating.

Profit in 2018 5.

2 trillion, in line with expectations.

It achieved operating income of 133 in 2018.

900 million (33% increase), profit 5.

200 million (down 78%).

The increase in revenue was mainly due to the expansion of sales scale: in 2018, the company sold a total of 1101 pigs.

10,000 heads (the same increase of 52%), of which 1010 were commercial pigs.

90,000 piglets.

40,000 heads, breeding pigs 3.

80 thousand heads.

The main category of profit caused by the decrease in pig prices: the average selling price of the company’s commercial pigs in 2018 was 11.

62 yuan / kg, a 20% decrease from 2017.

The performance was in line with expectations.

The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 0 for every 10 shares.

5 yuan.

Rising costs, low pig prices and short-term pressure on 19Q1 performance.

The company expected 19Q1 to expect 5.

200 million-5.

600 million.

The main reasons we judge are: 1) The cost of the company ‘s breeding has increased due to non-blast epidemic prevention and pig farm construction. It is estimated that the total cost of the company ‘s breeding will be 11 in 2018.

8 yuan / kg increased to 12-12.

5 yuan / kg; 2) Panic sentiment about the epidemic situation and the impact of the Spring Festival. In 19Q1, the pig breeding industry was generally released in advance, and the pig price was correspondingly under pressure. In addition, according to grassroots research, the companyThe slow-growing pigs in the house will not be re-raised, and the others will be sold uniformly, which will cause the average weight of the slaughter to drop and drag down the average sales price.

It is estimated that the company will produce 3 million to 3.5 million pigs in 19Q1, with an average investment of 150-180 yuan.

The inflection point of the cycle has arrived, and the leader is moving forward.

1) Pig price: The affected 18Q2 breeding stocks, the impact of non-epidemic diseases and the embargo policy, the current production capacity of the domestic pig breeding industry has reached 19%, far exceeding the capacity reduction in the previous two cycles.

The current trend of de-capacity production is still continuing, or as high as 28%.

Among them, the company’s production capacity is mainly distributed in northern regions such as Henan. Due to the severe epidemic situation in 2018, its production capacity has been deepened, and local pig prices are highly flexible.

2) Company listing volume: The company aims to achieve 13 million to 15 million listings in 2019.

Combined with the company’s fixed assets and construction surplus (up 42% at the end of 2018) and productive biological assets (up 4% at the end of 2018; from the perspective of historical average productive biological assets, it can support approximately 13.6 million heads of 2019) Annual sales volume), we estimate that the company will sell about 13 million heads in 2019 (the same increase of 18%).

Considering that profit growth in 2019 will improve the company’s cash flow and accelerate its capacity expansion, it is expected that the company will 佛山桑拿网 sell about 17 million heads in 2020 (a 31% increase).

Risk factors: Livestock and poultry prices rise more than expected; raw material prices fluctuate sharply; livestock and poultry epidemics.

Investment suggestion: Considering the reversal of the cycle or the significant increase in pig prices, the company’s sales volume is expected to continue to grow at a high level. We revise the EPS forecast for 2019/2020 to 1.

64/6.19 yuan (was 1).


33 yuan), plus the EPS forecast for 2021 is 5.

28 yuan.

With reference to the company’s average profit level in the previous cycle and the historical forecast level of its peers, it will give 13 times PE for 2020 EPS, raise its target price to 81 yuan, and maintain a “buy” rating.

Haida Group (002311): Feed breaks through 1,000 tons and all businesses grow

Haida Group (002311): Feed breaks through 1,000 tons and all businesses grow

Report Summary: On the evening of April 15, the company released the 2018 annual report, and the company realized sales income of 421.

570,000 yuan, an increase of 29 in ten years.

49%, net profit attributable to mother 14.

37 ppm, an increase of 19 in 深圳桑拿网 ten years.


Dividends are paid every 10 shares3.

0 yuan (including tax), the average return on net assets is expected to increase by 20.

twenty one%.

Feed sales have entered the 1,000-ton class, and livestock and poultry aquatic materials have increased in an all-round way.

The company achieves a feed sales volume of 1070 per year, an annual increase of 26%.

Among them, the sales volume of aquafeed is 311 every year, which is 23% year-on-year.

Optimized structure of aquatic feed, yoyo of special aquatic feed is nearly 40%; sales of pig feed is 232 tons, yoy is 53%, far exceeding the industry average; poultry feed sales are 527, yoy is 19%, while traditional dominant breeds are growing steadily while broiler feed is increasingNearly 40%.

The gross profit margin of the feed sector was 11.

04%, a decrease 夜来香体验网 of 0 per year.

52 quantities, of which the gross profit margin of pig feed and aquatic feed declined, the increase in poultry feed, and the decline in gross feed profit of pig feed were the main factors that caused the overall gross profit rate of feed to decline.

The dynamic insurance business has grown steadily, and Southeast Asia is expected to become a new growth point.

Realization of revenue from the dynamic insurance business 4.

7.3 billion, an annual increase of 19.

82%, gross margin 47.


The dynamic insurance business is not only an independent profit point, but also a synergistic auxiliary section of the feed business. The company’s strong service system and high costs have been reorganized. The dynamic insurance and feed business promote each other.Sales of aquatic products in Southeast Asia will become a new bright spot for growth.

The cost control of pig farming is excellent, and the gradual volume can be expected.

The company produces 700,000 live pigs, an annual increase of 52%; about 200,000 are self-bred and fattened pigs and piglets, and about 500,000 are in the “company + farmer” model.

The “company + farmer” breeding cost has effectively decreased gradually. In the second half of the year, the breeding cost was controlled within 12 yuan / kg, and the pig breeding sector had more than 800 people, an increase of nearly 80%.

In addition, the poultry processing business achieved revenue in 20185.

$ 6.5 billion, a year-on-year increase of 279%, deepens the company’s understanding of slaughtering, meat processing and food businesses.

Continued high R & D investment and guaranteed core competitiveness.

18 years of research and development funding is 3.

1 ppm, an increase of 21 in ten years.

76%, accounting for 0% of revenue.


Continued high R & D investment ensures that the company has a comprehensive competitive advantage in aquatic seed, feed, animal health, and breeding models.

Profit forecast: It is estimated that the net profit attributable to mothers will be 19 in 2019-2021.



800 million, EPS is 1.


79/1.69 yuan, P / E is 22.



5x, maintain “Buy” rating.

Risk reminder: the risk of rising raw materials, natural disasters, pig production is not as expected, etc.

Xuelong Group (603949): IPO pricing report

Xuelong Group (603949): IPO pricing report
Company profile The company is mainly engaged in the R & D, production and sales of automotive engine cooling fan assemblies, clutch fan assemblies and lightweight plastic parts for automobiles.The fan assembly products and clutch fan assembly products produced by the company are mainly fan assembly products, which are mainly used for high-power engines of large, medium and light commercial vehicles and non-road mobile machinery and equipment.The company’s automotive lightweight blow molding products include engine air intake pipes, expansion water tanks, and air conditioning air outlet pipes. Among them, engine air intake pipes and expansion water tank products are engine system components.Company highlights (1) The company has consistently adhered to technological innovation and accumulated core technologies.Through continuous exploration in practice, the company has the courage to trial and error, independent innovation, and has mastered a series of industry-leading core technologies. The relevant technical achievements have won provincial and municipal scientific progress awards for many times, and the first (set) product in the province, Ningbo City.Replacement of key industrial new products and new energy-saving products in Ningbo.Among them, plastic material modification technology is the company’s independent core 深圳桑拿网 technology. The performance of plastic materials modified by this technology in the manufacture of engine cooling fans can replace similar imported materials, which can achieve import substitution and reduce costs.  (2) The company has a stable and high-quality customer base and rich supporting experience. It is a first-class supporting supplier for domestic and foreign vehicle manufacturers, and has formed a long-term and stable product supporting relationship.The company established with more than 200 automobile and engine manufacturers including FAW Group, Dongfeng Group, Dongfeng Cummins, Yutong Bus, Jinlong Automobile, Sinotruk, Beiqi Foton, Jianghuai Automobile, Yuchai Group, Weichai Power, Geely Group, etc.It has established a first-tier supplier supporting relationship, and has cooperated with FAW Group, Dongfeng Group, Dongfeng Cummins, Yuchai Group, Jinlong Automobile, Shanghai Diesel, Jianghuai Automobile, Yutong Bus and other vehicle or engine manufacturers for more than ten years.It has established cooperative relations with Caterpillar, Volvo, South Korea Doosan, Japan Yanmar and other Fortune 500 companies and internationally renowned companies.  (3) The company’s main business product initialization and independent research and development and production, with its own technical advantages and mold independent development advantages, the company has opened up mold manufacturing, plastic modification, stamping, forging, machining, injection molding, blow molding and other productionAll aspects of the process have a complete industrial production chain.  The company always attaches great importance to brand building and has established a good image in the industry through years of concentrated operation. The “Xuelong” trademark has been identified as “China Well-known Trademark” and “Zhejiang Famous Trademark”, etc.”Zhejiang famous brand products” and so on.The “Xuelong” brand has become an important intangible asset of the company, which has increased the product premium.

Haitong Securities (600837) 2019 First Quarterly Report Review: Investment Business Flexibility Reveals Credit Business Risks Effectively Relieved

Haitong Securities (600837) 2019 First Quarterly Report Review: Investment Business Flexibility Reveals Credit Business Risks Effectively Relieved

This report reads: The rebound in the market has led to the release of the company’s investment business elasticity. If the subsequent liquidity is expected to improve, the company’s performance flexibility can be improved; the short-term securities firm’s largest catalyst comes from the market beta.

Investment Highlights: Maintain “Overweight” rating and raise target price to 17 due to better-than-expected results.

56 yuan / share, still corresponds to January 2019.

6 times PB.

The company’s 2019Q1 achieved revenue / net profit of 99.


70 trillion, +74 for ten years.

48% / + 117.

66%, ROE 3.

14%, the net assets of the mother is 1226.

490 thousand yuan before the end of 2018 +4.

06%, exceeding expectations.

Considering that the first-quarter report performance exceeds expectations, the company’s EPS for 2019-2021 is raised to 0.



12 yuan (0 before the increase).



94 yuan).

At present, the largest catalyst for the brokerage sector comes from the market beta. At the current estimated level, the sector beta attributes are stronger than the industry’s high growth and policy dividends.

The significant recovery in the market has led to the rapid release of the elasticity of investment business, and the pressure on credit loss caused by market growth has been severely relieved. If the subsequent liquidity is expected to improve, the company’s self-operated 苏州桑拿网 elasticity will further increase its room for improvement.

① The elasticity of investment business is greatly released: the report increases investment income by +268.

8%, revenue accounted for 49.

0%, directional investment in equity is expected to be the main force for performance contribution; ② The company’s increase in credit impairment losses in the first quarter of 2019 was only 2.

Through the market recovery and gradual improvement of corporate credit, the credit risk of the company’s stock pledge and financial leasing business has been effectively mitigated, and it has continued to improve gradually. ③ Reported that the net income of the brokerage business increased by +6.

73%, the previous stock’s trading volume +20 per year.

At 7%, the elasticity of the brokerage business has decreased. It is expected 杭州桑拿网 that the commission rate will further decline as the market picks up.

According to the latest announcement, the company’s refinancing plan of no more than 20 billion has been confirmed by Shanghai Guosheng Group and four existing shareholders to subscribe in large amounts, of which Shanghai Guosheng intends to subscribe for 10 billion, and the other three intend to subscribe for no more than 4.8 billion.It is confident that after the successful issuance, the company’s capital strength and comprehensive competitiveness will be greatly enhanced.

Catalysts: The launch of relevant innovative businesses; increased market activity; loosening of regulatory policies.

Risk reminders: Innovation falls short of expectations; stock market drops sharply; industry regulation strengthens

Big Motors: Four major factors cause A shares to rise more than expected and focus on the impact of resumption on earnings

Big Motors: Four major factors cause A shares to rise more than expected and focus on the impact of resumption on earnings

Come to Sina Finance University and listen to Guan Qingyou talk about economic and financial indicators and countermeasures during the “epidemic” period. Original title: Damo: Four factors to A-shares rose faster than expected. Focusing on the impact of rework rate on profitability. In the future, we will continue to pay attention to the rework rate.It serves as an indicator of the impact of new coronary pneumonia on China’s GDP and corporate profits.

  After the market fell sharply on the first day after the market opened on February 3, A-shares continued to rise, and the Shanghai Composite Index rose 2 on the 17th.

28%, the GEM index rose sharply3.


On February 18, the Shanghai Composite Index closed up slightly.


In the face of the epidemic, the market has temporarily transitioned temporarily, focusing on the long-term pattern.

  On February 17, the latest research released by Morgan Stanley stated that there are four major factors driving the continuous rise of A shares, including easing policies, new refinancing regulations, fewer confirmed cases of new crown pneumonia, and sudden shocks overseas.

Morgan Stanley’s A-share sentiment index also shows that the latest reading is maintained in the middle of the 40 range. Although the epidemic has caused production to shift, market sentiment continues to rise.

Approximately, when the A-share market rebounded strongly in the first quarter of last year, the reading was about 50, and it fell below 30 in the second half of the year.

The agency also said that it will need to continue to pay attention to the return to work rate in the future as an indicator of the impact of new coronary pneumonia on China’s GDP and corporate profits. In the near future, the agency will change the 2020 profit expectations of MSCI China and Shanghai and Shenzhen 300Reduced by 3% and 4% to 7% and 6%, respectively.

  Four factors boost China’s stock market. First, gradually lower the medium-term borrowing facility (MLF) interest rate by 10 basis points (BP) to 3.

15%, Morgan Stanley believes that this also paves the way for subsequent LPR (loan quote interest rate) reductions, and at the same time the market still has expectations for directional and comprehensive RRR cuts.

  About the evening of February 14th, the Securities Regulatory Commission formally issued refinancing rules.

The biggest highlight is that this revision adjusts the pricing and locking mechanism of non-public offering of shares, which is also considered to be the core of the current refinancing market.

The revised rules have relaxed the discount rate for refinancing issuance prices, and at the same time shortened the lock-up period of shares, and the relevant restrictions of the reduction rules do not apply.

At the same time, after the formal revision, if a listed company applies for a non-public offering of shares, the number of shares to be issued shall not be increased from 30% to 30% of the total share capital before the issuance in principle.

Morgan Stanley believes that this will boost the A-share market flow, especially in the small and medium-cap markets.

  In addition, the number of confirmed cases of neocoronary pneumonia began to decline.

Morgan Stanley also said that the return rate should be used as one of the indicators to measure the impact of the new crown pneumonia on China’s GDP and corporate profits.

  Another surprising idea is not due to the world ‘s largest worm raging once in 25 years, which caused the United Nations to issue a profound forecast. On February 17, a wave of agricultural stocks rose in the A-share market.

  However, Morgan Stanley said that the risk to be alert is that once the situation gradually normalizes, policy effects may be replaced.

For the time being, communication services are still the most oversupplied sector. Online companies continue to be optimistic about connected activities, such as online games and e-commerce; and over-configuration infrastructure related sectors (materials, industry).

  Mainstream institutions concerned about the resumption of work and profitability of mainstream companies generally believe that the recent market activity reflects more the goodwill of policies, including the easing of monetary policy and the relaxation of regulatory policies, and the stock market has not yet responded to the downward pressure on the economy and the decline in corporate profits.Therefore, the stock market trend should not be pessimistic after the sharp fall on the first day after the holiday, but it should not be blindly optimistic after continuous forcing short-term growth, and the continuous long-term trend still needs to reflect fundamental changes.

  At present, the decline in the market’s risk-free rate of return may not yet fully hedge the decline in corporate profits.

Affected by the new crown pneumonia temporarily, on February 14, Morgan Stanley lowered the 2020 target prices of MSCI China and Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 to 84 and 3960, respectively, and reduced the 2020 profit expectations of MSCI China and Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 in the scenario, respectively.Down 3% and 4% to 7% and 6%.

The reason for the adjustment is that, assuming the epidemic peaks in February or March, the impact on GDP growth in the first quarter is expected to be zero.



At 5%, the recovery of corporate and consumer sentiment has improved, and the agency’s Z-score model of Chinese consumer activity also reflects this.

The Air Force’s Chinese consumer activity has been improving, and it is worth observing the follow-up situation.

  In response to resumption of work and profits, Eastspring recently traced the risk exposure of the electronic equipment manufacturing end in the technology industry.

The total number of employees in such companies in listed companies in China is tens of thousands, or even 100,000, and small and medium-sized enterprises with a few people can be found everywhere.

How to prevent new coronavirus pneumonia in such a dense and populous environment, and promptly identify and isolate cases when they occur, while ensuring normal production is challenging.

  In addition, Morgan Stanley also mentioned that the fundamentals of the first quarter will be damaged due to the traditional Chinese New Year factors. The revenue of alcohol, beverage, food and brand clothing companies generally exceeds 25%.?30%, corresponding profits accounted for 30%?
40%, attractions, education and training enterprises accounted for 20% of revenue?
25%, profit accounted for about 25%; hotel and catering companies accounted for 20% of revenue, but the relative proportion of profits was about 15%.
However, leading companies have the ability to penetrate faster and expand in times of industry crisis. The growth rate of these companies will remain the same or even higher in 2021. Some tax exemptions, hotels, offline training leaders, travel platform services and high-quality scarce attractions.

  Therefore, mainstream institutions believe that even if the index subsequently adjusts moderately, it will be more conducive to the healthier operation of the stock market, and moderate 都市夜网 adjustments will allow hesitant off-market funds to enter the market and will be more conducive to long-term market optimism.

  In addition, Morgan Stanley pointed out that even though it is difficult for MSCI to continue to promote A-share substitution factors this year, foreign investment in A-shares is still in a very early stage, and overseas investors ‘holdings of A-shares have only reached 3% of the total market value.

5% (as of December 2019).
Since June 1st last year, the most ideal sectors for Beijing’s capital are consumption, capital goods, banking, and healthcare.

  On February 13, MSCI released its February 2020 quarterly adjustment list on its official website, and the relevant changes will take effect after the close of February 28.

The elimination of Midea Group has long been expected, which is also associated with suffering from being “buyed”.

According to the relevant regulations of the Shanghai and Shenzhen Stock Exchanges, individual foreign investors hold the shares of a listed company through qualified investors, and the shareholding ratio must not exceed 10% of the total number of shares of the company; all foreign investors’ shareholding ratios in the A listed shares of the alternative listed companyThe sum does not exceed 30% of the total shares of the listed company.

  According to Morgan Stanley’s calculations, the top ten stocks with the highest foreign shareholding currently are: Midea (27.

2%), China Test (27.

1%), Bank of Nanjing (18.

6%), Tiger Medical (18.

3%), Founder Securities (right protection) (17.

9%), Sofia (17.

9%), Bank of Ningbo (17.

3%), Gree (16.

9%), the boss appliances (16.

3%), Angel yeast (16.


Lixun Precision (002475): Domestic precision manufacturing leading consumer electronics growth expected

Lixun Precision (002475): Domestic precision manufacturing leading consumer electronics growth expected
Leading domestic precision manufacturing company, core supplier of world-renowned consumer electronics companies.Lixun Precision mainly produces and manages cables, connectors, RF antennas, acoustics, wireless charging, motors, Bluetooth headsets and other components, modules and accessories. The products are widely used in consumer electronics, computers and peripherals, communications, automotive and medicalAnd other fields.Downstream customers cover Apple, Huawei, Sony, Google, Microsoft, Samsung, Lenovo, HP, Cisco, Dell, etc. The consumer electronics business is driving high revenue and net profit growth.In 2018, the company achieved operating income of 358.500,000 yuan, achieving net profit attributable to mother 27.2.3 billion.From 2010 to 2018, the company’s average annual compound revenue growth rate was 56.22%, the average annual compound growth rate of net profit attributable to mothers is 48.40%.Currently, consumer electronics have replaced the company’s most important business unit.In the last three years, the proportion of consumer electronics revenue in the company’s total revenue was 50.44%, 66.54% and 74.77%.Extremely, the concentration of the consumer electronics industry has steadily increased and reached a higher level.The company’s consumer electronics business revenue from 2015 44.16 trillion, growing rapidly to 268 in 2018.07 trillion, with an average annual compound growth rate of 82.41%. New downstream consumer electronics products are emerging, and wearables are driving a new round of growth for Lucent.In the field of smart phones, the commercialization and popularization of 5G networks will extend the replacement time of smart phones.In the field of tablet computers, two-in-one tablet computers ignited new demand, and domestic tablet users continued to grow.After smartphones and tablets, wearable products will become the next growth point for the consumer electronics industry.In the past few years, the outstanding performance of the core client and the company’s advance planning of the product and customer’s module products such as connectors, acoustics, antennas, wireless charging and vibration motors will still achieve multi-dimensional business expansion in the next 3 years.And the market’s growing demand for the wearable health industry, the company’s performance growth in the next three years is still relatively optimistic. Global connector leader, automotive, communications and consumer electronics drive growth.The rapid development of new energy vehicles will promote the transition and upgrading of automotive wiring harnesses, and the global automotive connector market will grow at a compound annual rate of 7.99%, driving the growth of the wire harness market.In the field of communication business, Luxun Precision has formed a fully interconnected product and solution layout around “cloud”, “pipe” and “end”, which has transformed into the arrival of the 5G era.Products will also be fully market competitive.Luxion Precision has actively deployed the server, 佛山桑拿网 communication products and consumer electronics fields, and has successfully entered the fast-growing smart mobile terminal market. The automotive connector market and communication product market with huge potential have become important components of key components of many world-renowned brand giantssupplier. Profit forecast and investment advice.We estimate that Luxeon Precision’s EPS will be 0 from 2019 to 2021.76, 1.04, 1.33 yuan.Combining with the estimates of comparable companies, Luxun Precision gave a PE estimate of 50-53 times in 2019, corresponding to a reasonable value range of 38.00-40.28 yuan, given a “preliminary market” rating. risk warning.New energy vehicle market development process is slow or less than expected risks; risks caused by slow changes in 5G construction progress or policy changes; affected by the global macroeconomic downturn, consumer electronics market demand is less than expected.

Accelerating the transfer of state-owned assets to social security

Accelerating the transfer of state-owned assets to social security

Today’s point of view: State-owned assets transfer to social security accelerates reform of state-owned enterprisesThe Ministry of Commerce notified that after the Ministry of Finance, the Ministry of Human Resources and Social Security decided to transfer 10% of the equity of China Taiping Insurance Group Co., Ltd. held by the Ministry of Finance to the National Social Security Fund in one time.

  Taiping Group is the second state-owned enterprise transferred in 2018.

Not long ago, the Ministry of Finance, the Ministry of Human Resources and Social Security just studied and decided to transfer 10% of the shares held by the People’s Insurance Group of China to the National Social Security Fund.

  In my opinion, a large number of large state-owned enterprises’ equity transfers took place in just a few days, which may mean that the pace of transfer of state-owned assets to social security funds is accelerating.

  In November 2017, the State Council issued the “Implementation Plan for Transferring Part of the Current Capital Enrichment Social Security Fund”, which proposed that the central and local state-owned and state-controlled large and medium-sized enterprises and financial institutions should be divided into transfer areas, and the transfer ratio should be unified into the company’s substantial equity10%, the gap in the basic pension insurance fund based on the replacement of equity dividends.

  In fact, since 2001, three rounds of conventional asset enrichment social security fund policies have been implemented in the past, namely the “reduction of state-owned shares to raise national social security funds” in 2001, and the “transfer of domestic shares to enrich national social security in 2009”.Fund “and the 2017” Transfer of Old-Fashioned Capital Enrichment Social Security Fund “.

  So, what about these transfers over the years?

The author reviewed the annual report of the social security fund indicators over the years and noticed that from 2010, the social security fund indicators began to reveal the relevant situation.

  As of the end of 2017, the financial allocation of funds and shares to the National Social Security Fund continued for 8577.

8 billion yuan, of which, state-owned shares reduced transfer funds and shares 2827.

7.5 billion (reduction of funds 955.

6.3 billion yuan, 1028 domestic shares held.

5.7 billion yuan, 843 overseas stock transfers.

55 ppm) As for investment income, the annual report of the social security fund indicators did not specify specific details.

On the whole, as of the end of 2017, the annual average investment income of the 夜来香体验网 social security fund has been transformed since its establishment8.

44%, the cumulative investment income was 10073.

9.9 billion yuan.

  The author believes that the transfer of state-owned assets to social security funds is accelerating. In addition to enriching social security funds, it will also play a positive role in promoting the reform of state-owned enterprises.

Because from the perspective of the original enterprise, the transfer of state-owned assets is an important means of using the dating social security fund as a diversified shareholder to adjust the equity structure.

  This is mainly reflected in two aspects: First, the social security fund will not interfere with the daily production and management of the enterprise, and promote the maintenance and appreciation of assets.

This is evident from the 武汉夜网论坛 investment income of the social security fund.

  Second, social security funds appear in existing enterprises in the form of shareholders, and the state-owned enterprises have shifted from “one-dominated” to diversified shareholder checks and balances.

This is definitely a positive and positive impact on the operating efficiency of traditional enterprises.

This is also an important direction for the reform of state-owned enterprises.

  In many places, local implementation plans for transferring some conventional capital to enrich the social security fund have also been introduced, and some provincial enterprises are being selected for pilot transfers, after which they will be transferred in batches to other eligible provincial enterprises’ regular equity.

  This will have a positive effect on further promoting the reform of state-owned enterprises.