Yunda shares (002120): Continuous improvement in costs drives high growth

Yunda shares (002120): Continuous improvement in costs drives high growth
event.Yunda shares released the 2018 annual report and the 2019 first quarter report.It achieved operating income of 138 in 2018.56 ppm, an increase of 38 in ten years.8%.Net profit attributable to mother 26.98 ppm, a 69-year increase of 69.8%.In the first quarter of 2019, operating income was 66.850,000 yuan, an increase of 151 in ten years.6%.Net profit attributable to mother 5.670,000 yuan, an increase of 40 in ten years.4%. Continuous improvement in costs led to high growth in performance, which exceeded market expectations.Taking 2018 as an example, the gross margin of the express delivery business was 28 in 2017.9% increased to 29.1%, the annual single ticket income fell 11 per year.2%, while the cost 杭州夜网论坛 of a single ticket is reduced by 11 per year.4%, single ticket gross profit from 0 in 2017.56 yuan dropped to 0.50 RMB.Especially in the fourth quarter of 2018, the single ticket revenue ratio decreased by 6.2%, while the cost of a single ticket is reduced by 8 per year.3%, single ticket gross margin remained at 0.51 yuan unchanged.Express order quantity 44 in the season.Driven by a 6% growth rate, the net profit attributable to mothers increased by 73% in 2018Q4.4%.In terms of 2019Q1, the gross profit of a single ticket is from 0 in 2017.53 yuan to 0.58 yuan, 41 orders in the season.Driven by a 5% growth rate, the net profit attributable to mothers in Q1 2019 increased further by 40.4%. The continuous automatic sorting input drives a rapid increase in per capita workload.Taking the 2018 annual report as an example, under the background of an increase in the number of express orders by 48%, the number of production personnel decreased from 6515 in 2017 to 5549, which gradually decreased by about 15%, so that it can be estimated that the increase in per capita workload increased by about 74%.The rapid increase in per capita work is related to improving the automatic sorting of additional distribution centers added in recent years. According to the 2018 annual report, the book value of machinery and equipment increased by 102%.At the same time, in 2018 and the first quarter of 2019, fixed assets were completed, and cash paid for intangible assets and other long-term assets was 34.700 million, 11.600 million, an increase of 148% and 190% each year.With the increase of the company’s large-scale transportation vehicles and automatic sorting, the per capita work volume will gradually increase, which will lead to the increase of labor costs and disturbance of future performance. The industry concentration has increased rapidly, and e-commerce express stocks continue to be recommended.The CR8 from January to March was 81.7, a month-on-month increase of 0.4.Behind the increase in industry concentration is that second and third tier express delivery companies are lagging behind. Since entering 2019, three small and medium express delivery companies have successively withdrawn from the small parcel market, including Aneng, such as Fengda and Guotong Express.The company’s speeding up the departure is paramount.For small and medium-sized express companies, their business scale cannot reach the minimum amount required for automated sorting, and labor costs have risen. Therefore, these companies have entered a cycle of “decreased unit market share-increased unit cost”Superimposed single-piece revenue continued to decline, and the survival situation of small and medium-sized express delivery companies became increasingly hard. Investment suggestion: Maintain “Buy” rating.Combining the improvement of the current unit cost of Yunda shares and the capital expenditure plan, we raised the profit forecast for 2019-2020 and supplemented the profit forecast for 2021. It is expected that the net profit attributable to mothers for 2019-2021 will be 27.6.1 billion, 33.2.1 billion, 38.82 ppm (original 25 for 2019-2020).7.3 billion, 31.4.1 billion), EPS is 1.61 yuan, 1.94 yuan, 2.27 yuan, corresponding to PE is 23 times, 19 times and 17 times. Risk warning: The price war exceeds expectations, and the lifting of the banned shares may put pressure on expectations.