Depth * Company * China Life (601628): The net profit of the investment side under pressure is gradually reduced to 64.
The company achieved 5,358 premium income in 18 years.
3 ‰, an increase of 4 per year.
7%; net profit attributable to mother 113.
9.5 billion, down 64 a year.
7%; net profit 119.
36 trillion, down 70 a year.
2%; realized embedded value of 7,950.
52 ppm, an increase of 8 per year.
3%; achieve NBV495.
100 million, down 17 a year.
The renewal pull effect is obvious, and the proportion of long-term protection is significantly increased: the company achieved 5,358 premium income.
26 ppm, a ten-year increase4.
7%: The renewal of premiums has been driven significantly, with an annual increase of 26.
6% to 3,646.
78 ppm; the effect of structural change in protection-type insurance products was obvious, with the first-year premium paid for five-year / ten-year and above accounting for 61% of the first-year premium paid.
65% / 46.
35%; premium for the first year of life insurance business is 1,062.
12 ppm, a decrease of 37 per year.
1%; first year premium of health insurance business is 507.
50,000 yuan, an increase of 24 in ten years.
The agent retention rate is under pressure, and the poor performance of new insurance policies is a drag on NBV: 1) The investment return rate drags on the deviation of EV investment returns and the EV growth rate narrows; 2) The company’s individual insurance channel pays a premium of 792 for the first year.
41 trillion, down 12 a year.
2%; new business value ratio of individual insurance channels increased by 15.
27 up to 47.
57%; 3) The size of the insurance channel team reached 143.
90,000 people, down 8 every year.
At 7%, the quality of agents has improved, but the retention rate is lower than that of their peers, increasing staff pressure.
Floating losses caused by fluctuations in the equity market increased the total / net investment yield significantly: 1) The company’s total / net investment income increased by 3 in 2018.
28% / 4.
64%, down by 1 every year.
27 shares; 2) The company’s equity assets accounted for a relatively high proportion of 13.
67%, with a total size of 4,246.
6.9 billion yuan.
Affected by the fluctuation of the equity market in 18 years, the equity investment income in 18 years has shrunk sharply, and gradually declined by 36.
4% to 177.
76 trillion; 3) The pressure on asset impairment has increased significantly, and the accumulated annual increase in asset impairment over the 18 years has increased by 188.
5% to 杭州桑拿 82.
10 trillion, preliminary provision for impairment losses on stocks that can be included in financial assets, and floating losses will be realized.
The investment proposal is based on the 2018 annual report, which lowers its profit forecast. It is expected that the growth rate of NBV in 2019/2020/2021 will be 10.
3% / 11.
6% / 12.
4%, EV growth rate is 12.
7% / 14.
2% / 15.
8%, 2019 PEV is 0.
88, China Life is better off than its peers, and its product pricing is more aggressive. It is expected that new single premiums and NBV will outperform peers in 2019. The recovery of the equity market is expected to improve significantly.
Risk reminders: The growth rate of insurance premiums for protection-type insurance products is less than expected; the dual impact of market fluctuations on industry performance 杭州夜网论坛 and estimates; uncertainty in investment by insurance companies caused by downward interest rates